My apologies for the short structured article this week, some unexpected work conflicts threw me off my normal schedule. I will be back to the normal article next week!
Course: Harbour Town – Pete Dye Design
Location: Hilton Head, South Carolina
2017 Winner: Wesley Bryan (-13)
2018 Field: 132 players – average strength
Cut: Top 70 & Ties after Friday’s round
- Dustin Johnson
- Matt Kuchar
- Adam Hadwin
- Ryan Palmer
- Graham DeLaet
- Jim Furyk
- Graeme McDowell
- Brandt Snedeker
- Nick Taylor
- David Hearn
7,099 Yards – very short
(4) Par 3’s – (3) Par 5’s
Bermuda Greens – very small
- Player’s club down off tee
- Accuracy is important
- GIR % is much lower due to small greens
- Greens tend to be slow
- Lots of tree lining fairway
- Course History
- Strokes Gained Approach (25-30%)
- Greens in Regulation (25-30%)
- Fairways Gained (20-25%)
- Birdie or Better (15-20%)
- Strokes Gained Around the Green(15-20%)
- Bogey Avoidance
- Proximity 150-200
- Strokes Gained Putting on Bermuda
- Normal stroke play event
- Emphasis on 6/6
- Narrative: DJ is just here because of sponsor
- Balanced roster will be popular
- Leave money on the table
- Check the weather – potential tee time stacks
- Pete Dye Specialist
Follow Fanshare Sports to monitor the industry and how ownership is trending!
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Link for free month can be found here
*Disclaimer – these are done early in week and may be subject to change as ownership projections evolve*
Paul Casey ($11,300) – Good on approach and GIR. Very consistent but will be high owned.
Patrick Cantlay ($9,100) – Good iron player, but not great if he has to scramble. He comes with some risk if his irons are off. It will depend on where his ownership falls.
My favorite range by far – will lead to balanced lineup approach.
Luke List ($8,900) – I have been playing him all year, not getting off now. His recent stats correlate well and he has played well clubbing down off the tee this year.
Kevin Kisner ($8,700) – Great course history. Played (relatively) well at Masters last week. Shorter courses play in his favor, also South Carolina native.
Adam Hadwin ($8,100) – Been playing incredibly well this year and last week at Masters. Some slight worry in the Masters fatigue narrative, but I will still have exposure.
James Hahn ($7,500) – Has made every cut this year. Missed cut here the past two year. I think his recent form outweighs his course history, I will play him.
Francesco Molinari ($7,500) – Plays well on shorter courses. Accurate player and good at GIR. Fairly safe but not crazy upside.
Really do not see much need to dive down this low, but if you must…
Vaughn Taylor ($6,800) – Made last two cuts here. Rates out fairly well in my model. Like it but don’t love it.
As I said above, I think the balanced approach is going to be the most popular roster construction by far. If you think DJ is here to compete and win you might be able to get him at pretty low ownership, which will provide some great leverage with a top notch player.
If you have any questions feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @thetipsandyips & @TheGolfFamily. Hope you all have a good week and win some $$$. Good luck and feel free to share your results!
Thanks for reading!